Staff Reporter
Namibia is expected to experience a hotter and drier-than-normal rainfall season from October 2026 to March 2027.
The Namibia Meteorological Services announced that the anticipated conditions are a result of the rapid intensification of El Niño conditions over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean.
“During the period from April to June 2026, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies reached the threshold of 0.5°C, marking the onset of an active El Niño phase. SST anomalies subsequently increased to 1.0°C between May and July 2026, indicating a weak El Niño. Conditions have since intensified rapidly, with an anomaly of 1.8°C observed by the second week of August 2026,” the Namibia Meteorological Services explained.
According to the meteorological services, major global climate prediction centres unanimously project that the El Niño event will continue to strengthen in the coming months, potentially exceeding 3.0°C and reaching “very strong” status.
The Namibia Meteorological Service explained that the entire country has a high likelihood of experiencing above-average maximum temperatures between October and December 2026. During this period, maximum temperature anomalies are forecast to reach about 1°C above average over the eastern parts of the country, while the extreme south-eastern areas could experience temperatures up to 2°C above normal. Meanwhile, temperatures in the western parts of the country are expected to range between 0.5°C and 1°C above normal.
Maximum temperatures are also likely to remain above average across most of the country between January and March 2027. According to the Namibia Meteorological Services, the largest increases, of up to 3°C above average, are expected in western Ohangwena, northern Hardap, western Erongo and Omaheke.
“Downscaled regional climate models produced by the Namibia Meteorological Service for the period October 2026 to March 2027 indicate a strong likelihood of above-average temperatures combined with below-average rainfall across the country. Analogue case analysis indicates that the evolution of the current event closely mirrors the 2023/24 season, providing a useful benchmark for disaster preparedness, agricultural planning and resource management,” the Namibia Meteorological Services explained.
The Namibia Meteorological Services assured the public that it will continue to monitor atmospheric conditions and provide updates as the season progresses.
