{"id":236848,"date":"2019-01-24T10:59:22","date_gmt":"2019-01-24T08:59:22","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/informante.web.na\/?p=236848"},"modified":"2019-01-24T10:59:26","modified_gmt":"2019-01-24T08:59:26","slug":"outlook-2019-the-future-is-not-what-it-used-to-be","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/informante.web.na\/?p=236848","title":{"rendered":"Outlook 2019 \u2013 The future is not what it used to be"},"content":{"rendered":"
\"Outlook<\/a>
FISCAL TIGHTLINE: Chief Economist, Floris Bergh_Photo: Contributed<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Business Reporter<\/p>\n

THE Namibian economy will probably show marginally positive growth this year of 1.5% in real terms.\u00a0 This outcome will largely be the result of a \u201cflattening\u201d out of the down cycle rather than a real recovery.<\/p>\n

This is according to chief Economist, Floris Bergh at Capricorn asset management. Bergh stated that the down-cycle has been evident since 2016 and carried over throughout 2017 and 2018.<\/p>\n

\u201cIn fact, we expect that the economy as a whole contracted in 2018 in real terms,\u201d Bergh said.<\/p>\n

Amongst the primary sectors, 2018 was a mixed year with Agriculture and Fishing struggling, while Mining experienced a bounce. For Mining, it was only the second positive year over the past five.<\/p>\n

Bergh predicted a somewhat positive growth from these three sectors in 2019. Similarly, amongst the secondary sectors, 2018 was mixed, with manufacturing contacting by an estimated 5%, whereas Electricity & Water and Construction are expected to have done reasonably well.<\/p>\n

\u201cBear in mind that Construction contracted by more than 25% in each of the preceding two years \u2013 a sharp, severe recession in the sector.\u00a0 Looking forward, there should be somewhat of a recovery from a low base in these sectors,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Bergh further stated that the tertiary sector, encompassing mostly services, is where, amongst others, the role of Government is taken into account.<\/p>\n

\u201cThe fiscus has been under tremendous pressure which, of necessity, stifled growth in Government spending and, hence, economic growth,\u201d Bergh said, adding that Retail & Wholesale trade has contracted by an estimated 4.9% in 2018. Some other industries like Transport, Post & Telecoms, Financial, Real Estate and Business services were positive, but Hotels & Restaurants were negative, according to the official National Accounts.<\/p>\n

\u201cIdeally, in a situation like this, a country could use fiscal policy to stimulate the economy.\u00a0 Increasing spending on, say, infrastructure or wages gives final demand in the economy a boost and hence lifts the growth rate.\u00a0 However, Namibia does not have any fiscal maneuverability \u2013 debt levels, spending levels and deficits are already too high and threatens the country\u2019s credit worthiness,\u201d he concluded.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Business Reporter THE Namibian economy will probably show marginally positive growth this year of 1.5% in real terms.\u00a0 This outcome will largely be the result of a \u201cflattening\u201d out of the down cycle rather than a real recovery. This is according to chief Economist, Floris Bergh at Capricorn asset management. Bergh stated that the down-cycle …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":236947,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[27],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-236848","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","category-business"],"yoast_head":"\nOutlook 2019 \u2013 The future is not what it used to be - Informant\u00e9<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"THE Namibian economy will probably show marginally positive growth this year of 1.5% in real terms. 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