The regional rainfall pattern for the 2019/20 agricultural season is encouraging as parts of southern Africa are expected to receive adequate rainfall in the first half of the season.
Chief Meteorological Technician Namibia Meteorological Service Odillo Kgobesti said more normal to above-normal rainfall is expected in the country for the first half of the season in October, November and December, while normal to below-normal rainfall is predicted for January to March 2020.
The latest outlook produced by regional climate experts forecasts that there will be “normal-to-above-normal” across most of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) between October and December 2019.
The consensus forecast was produced by the 23rd Southern African Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) that met in Luanda, Angola on 28-30 August.
The SARCOF forecast is divided into two parts, covering October-November-December (OND) 2019 and January-February-March (JFM) 2020.
The forecast shows that most of the SADC region is likely to receive high rainfall termed “normal to above-normal” rainfall between October and December 2019, although the forecast does not specify that the rainfall will be evenly spread in time or place, and could indicate flooding.
Kgobesti further noted that according to the outlook, there is a 35% probability in the above-normal category, a 40% probability in the normal category and a 25% probability in the below-normal category for the period of October to December 2019.
Above-normal rainfall refers to rain measurements falling within the wettest third of recorded rainfall amounts in the last 30 years, while below-normal is defined within the driest third of rainfall amounts in that period.