Staff Reporter
LIVE cattle exports to South Africa contracted by approximately 76%, while an estimated 60% of animals traded through auctions were retained for breeding and for growing out to oxen.
This was highlighted in the Namibia Agricultural Union’s (NAU) 2026 Outlook. According to the Union, the pronounced contraction in marketable supply reflects a fundamental biological constraint: after several years of environmental stress, producers simply did not have sufficient market-ready animals available for sale.
NAU CATTLE REVIEW & OUTLOOK: Graph shows NAU Estimated South of the Veterinary Cordon Fence (SVCF) Herd Versus Marketing. Photo: NAU.
“This cyclical contraction highlights the vulnerability of the livestock sector to Namibia’s highly variable and erratic rainfall, establishing the environmental context as the primary, non-negotiable factor influencing market participation,” the Union added.
The NAU noted that cattle marketing declined sharply between January and September 2025, and that the herd-rebuilding process is expected to continue into 2026, with marketing volumes anticipated to recover modestly, potentially growing by 20-30% as herd rebuilding gains stability.
“Cattle prices are expected to remain elevated in 2026 across all categories. Weaner prices will be shaped by several dynamics. Demand for weaners in South Africa is anticipated to remain stable, while the improved profitability of South African feedlots, largely driven by low yellow maize prices and high carcass selling prices, is expected to have an impact. Locally, improved rainfall could further support stronger demand for weaners and, in turn, bolster prices. However, uncertainty remains around the evolving Foot-and-Mouth Disease (FMD) situation in both countries, which poses a significant risk to market stability,” the Union continued.
