Staff Reporter
AS global temperature increases by 1.5°C and more, climate models project that Namibia will experience increasing frequency and intensity of climate extremes.
With its dry and hot climate, Namibia is already vulnerable to climate variability, and without adaptation, climate change will heighten this vulnerability.
This is according to research carried out by the University of Cape Town (UCT) and University of Namibia (Unam).
Giving a presentation on a recent dialogue on food security, Dr. Simon Angombe said that for Namibia, local warming and drying will be greater than the global average.
He noted that even a 1.5°C increase in global temperature will have severe local impacts, negatively affecting water supply, agriculture, health, and other vulnerable sectors.
“The 1.5°C threshold could be breached within the next decade, and the 2°C threshold the decade after. This means that there is an urgent need to accelerate Namibia’s adaptation responses. For vulnerable countries like Namibia, these seemingly small increments in global temperature can lead to distinct local climate conditions, which can interact with, and worsen existing vulnerabilities,” Dr. Angombe said.
He added that many communities in Namibia have little capacity to adapt to the impacts of the changes projected at 1.5°C and above, and that government-led adaptation often tends to focus on immediate development needs.
“Heat waves are expected to increase in duration by up to 96 and 180 days, respectively, at 2°C and 3°C. Increasing temperatures will increase heat stress in Namibia’s vulnerable sectors, and will also increase the severity of droughts in the country. At 1.5°C, the duration of heat waves will increase by up to 59 days, with the biggest increase in the semi-arid zones. At increasing levels of global warming, total annual rainfall is projected to decrease across the country,” Dr. Angombe said.
At increasing levels of global warming, total annual rainfall is projected to decrease across the country.
The largest relative decrease in rainfall will be experienced in the hyper-arid and arid-south zones, which will experience decreases of 6% and 7%, respectively, at 1.5°C.
To adapt to a 1.5°C+ world, Dr. Angombe stated that Namibia will need to accelerate the implementation of its National Policy on Climate Change through identified adaptation options outlined in the Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan.
“With these instruments in place, and aware of the near-term risks of 1.5°C warming and above, Namibia will be in a far better position to respond to the impacts associated with 1.5°C and above,” Dr. Angombe concluded.
